All Reporters Agree: DeSantis is Toast!

NBC just moved this story: NBC NEWS: RON DESANTIS’ DONORS AND ALLIES QUESTION IF HE’S READY FOR 2024. I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that this is becoming an example of the kind of press group-think we often, very rightly, view with disdain. But it’s still remarkable how quickly many of DeSantis’s biggest backers, or most significant potential backers, have decided he’s not ready for prime time. The piece is based on comments, interviews and reports of a range of GOP bigwigs. But it largely focuses on the GOP mega-donors who increasingly dominate GOP campaigns as the GOP small donor world has atrophied. They’re talking about taking a ‘pause’, pumping the ‘brakes’. It’s embarrassing and frankly humiliating for DeSantis who has experienced several such dignity draining moments of late. But this is all a product of the last two weeks. It’s a rapid shift in conventional wisdom that is driven in large part by groupthink. It’s like a run on the National Bank of DeSantis. The difference is that in this case it’s a rapid shift in the direction of the more realistic take on DeSantis’s prospects.

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A Lot of People are Rooting for DeSantis to Fail

One thing to consider as we watch Ron DeSantis’s campaign get started is just who is for him. Or perhaps there’s a better way to put it: Is anyone for him? My point here isn’t aggregate support. Polls suggest he currently has the support of between a quarter and a third of GOP primary voters. That’s a lot. But here I mean support in a more visible sense — among party and political elites, in the media, among fellow elected officials.

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Listen To This: Prosecutors and Pudding

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Josh and Kate discuss the looming potential Trump indictment, Ron DeSantis’ difficult dance and Michigan repealing its right-to-work law.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.


Where Things Stand: Great Timing For All Involved!

This is your TPM evening briefing.

The day has come. Donald Trump returned to Facebook. Elon Musk has invited him to come back to Twitter, and we can only assume he will do so as imminently as his Truth Social agreement allows. And, now, the big man is making his Fox News comeback.

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The Box Checker Fumbles

As Nicole LaFond explains in today’s Morning Memo (David Kurtz is on vacation), Ron DeSantis has got his first big fumble in his presidential roll out. He staked out an aggressively anti-Ukraine position on the conflict and American involvement in that conflict, going as far as to label it a “territorial dispute” and suggest no real U.S. interests at stake. This is in line with most Republicans in the Trump wing of the party and not surprising. But he got major pushback from a number of Senate Republicans and GOP foreign policy hands. So he shifted gears, now saying that the Russian invasion is really pretty bad after all, identifying Putin as a “war criminal” who must be “held accountable.” As Nicole notes, this is grist for Trump’s virtuoso taunting and pillorying. He commits the ultimate sin in the Trump GOP — admitting error, retreating rather than going on the offensive. Trump can do that. Because he’s Trump. But no one else can.


Another Delay. At Least.

Insider is reporting that while the New York City grand jury dealing with the Trump “hush money” case is meeting today, it won’t be working on the Trump case. That means nothing new is likely to happen in the case until Monday at the earliest. (The grand jury has been meeting on Mondays, Wednesdays and Thursdays. Grand juries routinely work on multiple cases at once.) What does this mean? I have no idea. Assuming the Insider report is correct, my best guess is that the reporting predicting an imminent indictment is still broadly correct. It was just off on the day it would happen, helped along in large part by Trump’s claim that he would be “arrested” Tuesday, March 21. That’s my pretty strong assumption: That there is still going to be a New York City indictment. But really who knows?


Alleged Santos Accomplice on the Run from Child Torture Charge

There’s a dark coda to one of the latest tales in the legend of Rep. George Santos (R-NY). As you will remember, a good bit of December and January were taken up by the ongoing saga of Santos and the slow unraveling of a life made up of a long litany of fabrications and criminal behavior. One of the last big stories to come out on Santos was about his alleged role as a mastermind of an ATM fraud ring in Seattle, allegedly working with a one-time roommate named Gustavo Ribeiro Trelha.

Trelha was arrested for running the fraud scheme in 2017. Santos was questioned by investigators probing the scheme and he later testified on Ribeiro’s behalf. Trelha eventually pled guilty, served seven months in jail and was deported to Brazil in early 2018. Once Santos became an international sensation, Trelha came forward to submit a sworn declaration to federal authorities changing his story and now accusing Santos of being the mastermind of the fake ATM card racket.


Trump’s to Lose

This is just out tonight from the insider sheet Puck …

With the Manhattan district attorney threatening to put Trump on trial, and DeSantis declining to stand in his way, G.O.P. operatives are coalescing around the notion that it’s now the ex-president’s race to lose.

I think this is right and I think it’s been clear for a while. This doesn’t mean Trump will definitely be the nominee. We can’t know that. But people are starting to see what, again, should have been clear for a while. With Trump’s remaining support — which is diminished but still robust — and the likelihood of multiple indictments, there’s just not room for a challenger to confront and unseat him.


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Alvin Bragg has spent a long time now in the eye of the storm — or, rather, a series of storms. 

The Josh marshall podcast


Ep. 266: Prosecutors and Pudding

Josh and Kate discuss the looming potential Trump indictment, Ron DeSantis’ difficult dance and Michigan repealing its right-to-work law.



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