We need to talk about the president’s 2027 proposed defense budget. It’s not like there’s been a shortage of reporting about it. But even with all that, I don’t think people have really absorbed the extent of it, it’s significance, the scale of growth. The president wants to increase the defense budget by more than 40%. That comes on top of his request for $200 billion to fund his current war with Iran.

Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán has become a kind of godfather of competitive authoritarianism, an autocratic visionary for the 21st century that right-wing parties around the world are seeking to emulate. Trump’s second term draws directly from his model, with the various thought leaders of that movement making their admiration plain. Orbán’s is a system in which elections continue, giving the country the appearance of democracy, but it is just that: an appearance.

Or so the thinking has gone. There is some irony in the fact that, according polls, Orbán is on track to lose reelection on Sunday to a former member of his Fidesz Party, Péter Magyar, who has won voters over by denouncing the regime’s corruption and incompetence. While it is no longer a question whether the country’s democratic mechanisms are fair, Sunday will test whether they are rigged enough to withstand the overwhelming backlash Orbán is now facing. JD Vance and Vladimir Putin are, in various ways, scrambling to save their ideological ally.

If Magyar’s party, Tisza, does win on Sunday, it could become the first step in a long process of de-Orbánization, which we have a great piece up on this afternoon. Political scientist Gabriela Greilinger walks through what will have to happen to unwind the prime minister’s grip on power. He and legions of his loyalists have burrowed deep into the mechanism of Hungarian government, and extracting them will not be quick or easy.

I want to thank everyone who came out to see us last night in Austin, Texas for our live recording of The Josh Marshall Podcast featuring Kate Riga. We had such a good time. I also wanted to thank our cosponsor, The Texas Observer, and the Observer’s news and politics editor, Justin Miller. It was so great to see all of you. As I told you last night, other than a few layovers when I was younger, I had never been to Texas before. As you guys say, it’s a whole other country. I’ve been to much of the South and Midwest. I grew up on the West Coast. But for whatever reason, I’d never been to Texas. I know Austin is a particular part of a very big state. But I really enjoyed my limited time there. And I really enjoyed getting a chance to meet so many of you.

Do you want us to come to your town or burg? Let us know. We’re slowly making our way across the country and particularly branching out from our usual haunts in DC and New York. We’ve now done live episodes of the pod in New York, DC, Chicago and Austin. And we plan to do multiple each year going forward around the country. So we’re always looking for good TPM towns to visit.

Conspiracy theories have become an inescapable part of American politics. I’ll talk to TPM contributing writer Mike Rothschild about his work as a researcher on conspiracy theories and how they spread, why some conspiracies endure, and what happens when fringe ideas are legitimized by some of the most powerful people on earth. 

Join us at 1 pm ET on Substack Live.

First, just because Donald Trump is an inveterate liar, don’t assume that Iran is a reliable narrator about anything that was agreed to in this deal. (Was there a deal? We’ll get to that.) One thing both sides explicitly agree on, coming right from President Trump himself, is that the 10 point Iranian plan will serve as the basis for discussions over the next two weeks. The early accounts of what that document included focused on a lot things Iran wants, even including things it wanted before the war broke out. It doesn’t really focus on the things the U.S. notionally got into this war for. (We’ll get in a moment to what’s included in the document Iran released today.) For the U.S., this ceasefire is at best a ceasefire on the basis of a stalemate, where the fight is about a draw and both sides want to see if they can bring the fight to an end.

That’s the optimistic view. The U.S. has clearly been more eager to get to the negotiating table. It’s the U.S. that wants out most. The items on that list tilt heavily toward Iran. The Iranians appear to be exercising continued control of the Strait of Hormuz even if they may allow ships to go through — “allow” being the key word.

One of Trump’s Truthed conditions for a ceasefire was the “SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” The White House appeared ready to declare that condition met. But even this morning, before reports emerged that Iran was once again closing the strait, there was some fine print.

Khaya Himmelman has the story here.

Trump on Truth Social, 6:32 p.m. ET, with the climb-down, describing what he claims will amount to a “double sided CEASEFIRE!”:

Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.

I try not to burden you with procedural minutiae in the key Trump II cases, but an unexpectedly strange 30-minute status conference ended a short time ago in the Abrego Garcia II civil case. What would normally be a snoozy housekeeping matter — in this instance, to set a briefing schedule on the Trump administration’s renewed bid to deport Kilmar Abrego Garcia to Liberia – went off the rails a bit.

Here are a few additional thoughts about the state of the war between the U.S. (and Israel) and Iran.

First, we had news from Reuters over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran might be on the brink of a ceasefire agreement, maybe as soon as Monday. It now seems like that was yet another example of a mix of over-optimism from broker countries trying to bring the sides together and, even more, the White House trying yet again to force a quick-to-fade market bounce. Yesterday afternoon I saw this piece in Haaretz which says that Pakistan (a lead country trying to broker a deal between the two sides) believes that Iran is now under the effective control of the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, that this commander thinks Iran is winning and that he’s not willing to compromise on Iran’s key demands or accede to the United States’. It also notes that Pakistan thinks the U.S. is more eager for a deal than Iran.

I don’t think you need to be Pakistan to see that last point. Everything President Trump does sends that message. Now, in the wake of the Trump’s threat to “end” Iranian civilization tonight, Iran has reportedly cut off participation in ceasefire talks with the U.S..

A few moments ago I saw this snippet in the Times: